A relação entre os níveis de riscos e os desvios orçamentários em projetos de desenvolvimento de software

Abstract

The monetary values invested in projects implementation are defined based on expected benefits. The ultimate generic benefit of a project is to add value to organizational processes. Budgetary deviations may be obstacles to the achievement of project benefits. Budgetary deviations can be reduced by using contingency reserves, however, the literature is inconclusive about ways to define and even size such contingency reserves. This may occur because budgetary deviations are due to the risks inherent to the uncertain environment in which the projects are inserted. To address these budget deviations, project managers constitute contingency reserves that are reserves of resources, especially financial resources, calculated in percentage terms of the total value of the project. In this way, it is relevant to understand the theories and practices that address the relationship between risks and budget deviations in projects and how these issues can be addressed. The objective of this paper is, therefore, to analyze the relationship between the risk levels and budgetary deviations in software development projects. For this, quantitative methods with hypothesis tests were applied through Chi-square statistical analysis. The sample consisted of convenience based on secondary data composed of 70 completed software development projects from 2012 to 2018. As a result, it was found that the duration, the type of the project and the innovation influence the project risk level. It was also verified that the level of risk influences the budget deviation, evidencing that the contingency reserve was calculated without considering the risk level. The main theoretical contribution is the understanding of some constructs that correlate with the level of risk and the discussion about the apparent progressive abandonment, over the last years, of the use of the risk level effectively in the project such as the definition of the contingency reserve. Some possible reasons are discussed. As a pratical contribution, this research confirms with empirical tests the relationship between risks and budget deviations as described in the literature, also, provides recommendations so that project stakeholders can make estimates with a higher level of accuracy reducing the system development software budget deviation.