Análise futura do etanol do Brasil por meio da geração de cenários prospectivos

Abstract

Currently, large metropolises seek to improve the quality of life of their population in aspects of urban mobility. Ethanol is a renewable biofuel, of great relevance to Brazil, because it is a clean fuel. Increased consumption compared to other fossil fuels could have a positive impact on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The research question that guided the study was: what scenarios for ethanol produced in Brazil in 2030? For this, this work adopted the format of independent and sequential studies, totaling 3 studies. Study I was carried out, based on a search in the Web of Science database, with the objective of verifying the construction of the knowledge of the theme "Prospective Scenarios", through the identification of the main publications and authors, based on an analysis Bibliometric. We found 232 articles, which were ranked in descending order of the most cited author for the least cited. This study was developed from an exploratory factorial analysis and five factors were identified. Subsequently, study II was developed with the objective of reviewing and comparing the methodologies of prospective scenarios to identify the most used methods and to compare the methods. The articles were separated into groups of relevant relevance for the theme to later carry out a comparative analysis, providing a view of the practical aspects of scenario planning, such as the selection and the appropriate number of scenarios for validation. Finally, study III was elaborated with the objective of proposing scenarios for the ethanol produced in Brazil in 2030. The data collection was done by sending a questionnaire to specialists on the subject, via the internet, following the guidelines of the Delphi method. Three prospective scenarios were elaborated: a probable scenario, an exploratory scenario and a normative scenario. The scenarios were based on the context of the sugarcane sector, through the uncertainties, opportunities and threats and the analysis of complex environments presented in the study.