Desenvolvimento de cenários para o turismo sustentável brasileiro

Abstract

In a world where we're growingly unsure of what the future holds, the use of scenarios as a strategic tool allows us to potentialize organizational sustainability. In Brazilian tourism, acting sustainably, especially during and after the pandemic, is a great challenge. The general objective of this work is to analyze the evolution and the perspective of scientific research in scenarios of tourism and sustainability, investigating its theoretical and methodological basis in empirical applications and develop scenarios for sustainable tourism in Brazil in ten years. For specific objectives, initially, we can look at promoting a quick reflection about international scientific production of the research about sustainable scenarios in the tourism industry, to propose new perspectives for this area of study. Following that, an analysis about how scientific research in sustainable tourism scenarios discusses the theoretical, conceptual, and methodological questions; aiming to understand its contradictions, contexts, and tendencies. Finally, we arrived at the proposal of developing scenarios for Brazilian sustainable tourism in a post-pandemic context in ten years. The objectives were achieved based on three successive studies - bibliometrics, systematic literature review, and application of an internationally recognized method for developing scenarios based on environment and stakeholder analysis, with a mixed approach. The work presents an empirical experience regarding the use of scenarios as a strategic tool for sustainability and sustainable tourism. The research contributes to the consolidation of theoretical concepts about scenarios and their application in sustainable tourism, integrating all dimensions of sustainability. In practical terms, the work shows an alert to the managers of the sector for the future possibilities of sustainable tourism in Brazil.