Controle estratégico de portfólios públicos de infraestrutura no Brasil

Abstract

Public Infrastructure Portfolios (PIPs) concentrate highly complex government investments and are recurrently exposed to risks of delays, cost overruns, work stoppages, and shortfalls in expected social benefits. In Brazil, these portfolios are subject to public oversight by internal bodies (Controller’s Offices) and external bodies (Courts of Accounts), whose performance is strained by strategic dysfunctions and by an institutional environment marked by fragmented governance, limited capacity, and political influence. Against this backdrop, this thesis— structured as a thesis by studies—investigated how strategic governance challenges in PIPs can be understood, theorized, and operationalized to improve the performance of public oversight bodies in the country. The research comprised three studies articulated through a cumulative logic: to understand the field (Study 1), to theorize empirically (Study 2), and to operationalize (Study 3). In Study 1, a systematic review combining bibliographic coupling and exploratory factor analysis identified five factors structuring the strategy-in-projects literature, with an integrative core at the portfolio–strategy interface and specialized streams on capabilities and innovation, strategic design, strategic resources, and Stakeholders. The mapping revealed a concentration at the meso level, interpretive predominance, and an almost complete absence of investigation at the extra-organizational level and in public oversight contexts. Study 2, qualitative, produced a theoretical model of Adaptive Governance Capability, structured into nine dimensions organized into three groups (adverse structural conditions, adaptive mechanisms, and maturation outcomes) and three relational patterns: cascading vulnerability, compensatory cooperation, and a reinforcing learning cycle. Study 3 developed and validated— through Action Research—a Technical-Technological Product (TTP), the Process Observatory, as an evidence-based governance organizational technology integrating a maturity diagnosis, workshops, BPMN modeling, and instrumentation through indicators and monitoring routines. In the pilot cycle, the TTP demonstrated feasibility through (i) institutional fit, (ii) end-to-end mapping across six workshops with identification of critical points, and (iii) traceability of 24 indicators derived from the AS-IS process, consolidated into 9 KPIs for executive-level reporting. As an integrated contribution, the thesis connects field diagnosis, empirical explanation, and a replicable instrument, demonstrating process management as an intermediate operationalization layer between governance theory and institutional practice.