Ecossistêmicos e desigualdades socioespaciais: uma análise das áreas verdes urbanas em Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brasil

Abstract

Introduction/Objective: Accelerated urbanization has intensified socio-environmental inequalities in cities, exacerbating urban heat islands and the degradation of environmental quality. Although urban vegetation plays a strategic role as a Nature-based Solution (NbS), providing ecosystem services such as thermal regulation and carbon sequestration, its spatial distribution is highly uneven and often disconnected from the most socially vulnerable areas. In this context, this study aimed to analyze, at the intra-urban scale, the distribution of these ecosystem services in the municipality of Ribeirão Preto (SP), Brazil, and their relationship with patterns of socio-spatial inequality, incorporating climate change as a structuring element of the analysis. Methodology: Land Surface Temperature (LST) and carbon sequestration potential (CO2FLUX) were mapped for both wet and dry seasons, from which ecophysiological indices and functional correlations were derived. In parallel, social vulnerability indices were developed based on census data from IBGE (2022), enabling an integrated assessment of climatic, ecological, and social dimensions. Environmental indicators were synthesized using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and grouped through k-means clustering, resulting in intra-urban thermo-ecological classes. Each census tract was simultaneously classified according to environmental condition and vulnerability level (CLASS_ISV), allowing the construction of a contingency table. The association between variables was tested using the Chi-square (χ²) test, with a 5% significance level. Results: The results showed a statistically significant association between environmental conditions and social vulnerability, indicating that more vulnerable sectors systematically coincide with areas of higher thermal stress and lower provision of ecosystem services. A clear intra-urban thermo-ecological gradient was observed, in which increasing LST is associated with a reduction in the ecophysiological capacity of vegetation. The multivariate synthesis enabled the identification of distinct environmental typologies applicable to urban planning, revealing the persistent concentration of unfavorable environmental conditions in socially vulnerable areas, characterizing a pattern of urban environmental injustice. This scenario is likely to intensify under regional climate projections for the State of São Paulo (2020–2050), which indicate rising temperatures, more frequent heatwaves, longer dry periods, and increased variability in extreme precipitation, thereby amplifying risks related to extreme heat, drought, and hydrological events in Ribeirão Preto. Conclusion: The findings highlight the need to incorporate socio-environmental equity criteria into urban planning, with territorial prioritization of UOPs 22-O, 11-O, 10-O, 02-N, 03-AER, 01-CE, and 08-O. This prioritization aligns with national and state climate policies, which recognize municipalities as key actors in climate adaptation and emphasize the territorialization of climate risks and the integration of environmental and socioeconomic variables. At the local level, these results are consistent with the Municipal Master Plan, the Municipal Climate Change Plan, and the Strategic Plan for the System of Green Spaces and Urban Forestry, supporting the implementation of more precise and equitable interventions in response to worsening climate conditions.