Seleção de projetos de investimento a partir do método Multicritério AHP: um caso do setor de energia

Abstract

Choose among several alternatives for investment in hydropower projects to compose a portfolio of projects in an organization is a complex subject. For this reason, organizations have used selection models seeking to optimize this process. Among the most widely used models in Brazil, there are the financial methods such as Internal Rate of Return, Payback and NPV. However, these methods restrict the analysis in economic and financial aspects of projects. Although, in the energy sector should also be taken into consideration qualitative aspects such as environmental impact, compliance with legislation and the wishes of the community in which the project is located, among others. Thus, this study proposes a model for selection of investment projects in hydropower from multicriteria method AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process). AHP was chosen because it allows evaluation measures incorporate both quantitative and qualitative. The development of the model was from consultation with experts from the energy sector, through the use of the Delphi technique. The results showed that the determining criteria in the selection process, in decreasing order of importance, are: financial attractiveness, licensing and environmental impact, organizational competence and capacity, political-legal environment and ultimately developing new technologies and skills. From the ordered list of criteria was developed in Excel and based on AHP methodology, a model of project selection. It is hoped that this model can help increase the efficiency and effectiveness of decisions in portfolio management process of investment projects in the power sector in Brazil.