Influência dos fatores de riscos no gerenciamento dos projetos de infraestrutura

Abstract

Investments in infrastructure projects are strategic for the economic, social and cultural development of a country. The world's annual investment estimate in the order of $ 3.4 trillion until 2030, or about 4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), in infrastructure projects. In Brazil, the rate of investment in this type of venture hits the mark of 9.9 percent of GDP, reaching levels close to those of developed countries. In terms of investment, the country experiences a propitious moment for new infrastructure projects, mainly through public private partnerships (PPPs), however when these are evaluated by the managerial aspect, one realizes that deficiencies in how they are administered, limit the scope of its objectives. These projects involve multiple risk factors and the success in its implementation depends on the effectiveness of its management, whose speeches go beyond using simple analytical techniques. Thus, this study assesses the influence of risk factors on the performance of infrastructure projects. To this end, uses the theoretical reference associated with both the literature focused on the risk management but also to literature on complexity and performance. From the literature, have been prepared seven study of propositions and a general hypothesis that formed the basis for the development of field research in five projects, all belonging to different economic sectors in the Brazilian scenario. The methodology predicted the development of the survey method in complementarity to the study of multiple cases, by which the information gathered in the projects were analyzed together and cross form, enabling more robust identification of risk factors and their influence on dimensions of assessed performance. The empirical evidence suggests that there are groups of risk factors that are associated with projects with varying degrees of impact on performance. It was observed, in addition, that the efficiency is achieved when the intensity in managing the risks and complexity management style applied are compatible to the type of enterprise (typification). It was noted, therefore, that depending on the risk factor involved, the influence generated by it can have different magnitudes and influence specific performance dimensions in the projects, especially if the intensity in the management of risk is low. Stresses therefore the need for greater training of managers, in terms of knowledge and skills, so that risk management is more efficient and better performances are achieved.