Análise dos impactos da distribuição espacial de criadouros de mosquito na propagação da dengue em uma população modelada por autômatos celulares

Abstract

Dengue is a typically urban disease. Recent studies highlight the growing number of dengue-infected regions and wider transmission areas due to frequent human activities. An example of this growth is the acceleration of the spread of the dengue virus caused by migratory waves and the international movement of people. The disease represents, in particular, a problem for less developed countries due to ine_ective vector control and disorderly urbanization processes, which lead to sanitation problems that contribute to the emergence of new mosquito breeding sites. Given this in_uence of human movement and urbanization on the spread of the disease and climatic aspects, it is natural that the pattern of dispersion undergoes spatial variations and is di_cult to detect. Thus, dengue is a disease in which the spatial distribution of individuals and breeding sites is an essential factor in the dynamics of the disease. This work explores aspects of the spatial distribution of vector breeding sites to understand the impact of infected mosquito breeding sites on the disease outbreak in the population. A model based on probabilistic cellular automata (PCA) is proposed to simulate the spread of dengue in scenarios with di_erent spatial distributions of mosquito breeding sites. The results are evaluated based on the basal reproducibility factor calculated using the next-generation matrix method from models in ordinary di_erential equations (ODE) as mean-_eld approximations of the PCA. Hence, two approaches were evaluated considering human-vector (direct) and human-human (indirect) transmission in the di_erential equations for all intermediate states in a scenario with two dengue serotypes. Then, a spatial calculation for the basic reproduction number is proposed to evaluate the disease in the lattice and for two regions of the city of São Paulo, Brazil, where the model was adapted. The results show the importance of public policies to avoid large areas with scattered mosquito breeding sites, whether these are public or residential areas.