O plano e o mercado: uma análise bayesiana da efetividade do planejamento urbano em direcionar o adensamento construtivo em São Paulo

Abstract

Contextualization: Promoting the expansion of the right to the city th- rough increased construction density near transportation corridors is one of the main objectives of São Paulo’s Strategic Master Plan. However, the success of this policy is not solely dependent on the decisions made by the public authorities; it requires the engagement of the real estate sector, which is responsible for producing the developments that will drive the desired growth. This study aims to evaluate, based on evidence, the effecti- veness of urban planning in directing real estate development in São Paulo, using data from the Urban Property Tax (IPTU) and Bayesian methods. The findings indicate that, between 2014 and 2023, the densification occur- red predominantly in the southwestern quadrant of the city, where there is a concentration of a predominantly white population, with higher incomes and shorter average commute times to work. The study concludes that this concentration in the ’noble area’ of the city, where the value per square meter is higher, combined with the ineffectiveness of construction incen- tives in the periphery, perpetuates the spatial segregation structures that the Master Plan aimed to transform.